Storm surge level prediction based on improved NARX neural network
نویسندگان
چکیده
The northern Gulf of Mexico coast is affected by the North Atlantic hurricane season, which causes storm surge disasters every year and brings serious economic losses to southern USA; therefore, it necessary make an accurate advance prediction level. In this paper, a model with simple structure, fast computation speed, results has been constructed based on nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous (NARX) neural network. Five types data collected from observation stations are selected as input factors model. To improve model's computational efficiency, neuron pruning strategy sensitivity analysis introduced. By analyzing output weights neurons in hidden layer output, structure can be adjusted accordingly. Moreover, modular method introduced tide harmonic so more accurate. At last, complete level model, pruned (PM)-NARX, constructed. trained using historical used for along 2020. simulation test show that correlation between predicted observed stable above 0.99 at 12 h able produce within one minute. accuracy, stability higher than those conventional models. addition, two sets follow-up tests accuracy still maintain high prove (PM)-NARX effectively provide early warning before avoid property damage human casualties.
منابع مشابه
Real-time Data Assimilation for Chaotic Storm Surge Model Using NARX Neural Network
Siek, M. and Solomatine, D.P., 2011. Real-time data assimilation for chaotic storm surge model using NARX neural network. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 64 (Proceedings of the 11th International Coastal Symposium), 1189 – 1194. Szczecin, Poland, ISSN 0749-0208 This paper introduces a real-time data assimilation technique where Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural networ...
متن کاملTraffic Prediction Based on Improved Neural Network
Artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms derived from the corresponding simulation of biology, anatomy. The paper analyzes the advantages and the disadvantages of the artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. The artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms to be combine in the prediction model. This method is used to predict traffic volume in a road, the accuracy of fore...
متن کاملForecast of storm surge by means of artificial neural network
This study describes the construction and verification of a model of sea level changes during a storm surge, applying artificial neural network (ANN) methodology in hydrological forecasting in a tideless sea where the variation of water level is only wind generated. Some neural networks were tested to create the forecast model. The results of ANN were compared with observed sea-level values, an...
متن کاملMulti-Output Artificial Neural Network for Storm Surge Prediction in North Carolina
During hurricane seasons, emergency managers and other decision makers need accurate and ‘on-time’ information on potential storm surge impacts. Fully dynamical computer models, such as the ADCIRC tide, storm surge, and wind-wave model take several hours to complete a forecast when configured at high spatial resolution. Additionally, statically meaningful ensembles of high-resolution models (ne...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Computational Electronics
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['1572-8137', '1569-8025']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10825-023-02005-z