Storm surge level prediction based on improved NARX neural network

نویسندگان

چکیده

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast is affected by the North Atlantic hurricane season, which causes storm surge disasters every year and brings serious economic losses to southern USA; therefore, it necessary make an accurate advance prediction level. In this paper, a model with simple structure, fast computation speed, results has been constructed based on nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous (NARX) neural network. Five types data collected from observation stations are selected as input factors model. To improve model's computational efficiency, neuron pruning strategy sensitivity analysis introduced. By analyzing output weights neurons in hidden layer output, structure can be adjusted accordingly. Moreover, modular method introduced tide harmonic so more accurate. At last, complete level model, pruned (PM)-NARX, constructed. trained using historical used for along 2020. simulation test show that correlation between predicted observed stable above 0.99 at 12 h able produce within one minute. accuracy, stability higher than those conventional models. addition, two sets follow-up tests accuracy still maintain high prove (PM)-NARX effectively provide early warning before avoid property damage human casualties.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Computational Electronics

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['1572-8137', '1569-8025']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10825-023-02005-z